Round 3 moves forwards – a little leaner

Many considerations go into the melting pot when determining a subject of national importance such as a nation’s energy supply, demand; security of fuel supply; current and predicted future price of the fuel; and all before venturing down the road of global warming, greenhouse gas emissions and green economies. We enter the area of politics here and while outside our scope it is the politicians who have a significant influence in the story that history will recount.

Fifteen years ago The Crown Estate rang the bell for Round 1 of the UK’s ambitious offshore wind programme with 13 projects, now operational and generating 1.2GW of renewable energy. July 2003 saw the start of Round 2 involving projects further offshore with 16 windfarms and a total capacity of 6GW. Development rights for a number of Rounds 1 and 2 windfarm extensions were awarded in 2010.

Just over 7GW may have appeared an ambitious target for Rounds 1 and 2 but it was eclipsed in early 2009 when the UK Offshore Energy Strategic Environmental Assessment was published identifying nine zones (to become Round 3) with a total potential capacity of 33GW. Just a year later following bidding for exclusive rights, the successful development partners were announced.

POLITICS AND REALITY
So the zones were identified, the potential calculated and developers appointed, so much for the easy part. Turning vision into reality involves a long slog meeting challenges and clearing hurdles but one tune developers have to play to is how the government of the day slices up the cake that is the energy mix make-up. This is important because as well as determining the size of the offshore wind market it also influences the form and levels of subsidy and support.

Renewables Obligation and Feed in Tariff schemes continue to play a role in supporting development but introduction of the government’s Electricity Market Reform is seeing Contracts for Difference arrangements enter the picture. The dividing up of the subsidy pot across various renewable technologies ultimately influences the big picture of the UK’s offshore wind programme. It is therefore perhaps apt that the Department of Energy and Climate Change refer to their plans as the UK Renewable Energy Roadmap.

When this feature appears, the UK will be taking in the political landscape post 2015 general election. Renewables industries covering all technologies will be watching closely the new administration as they mould the energy mix and map out future support provision arrangements, and also of course how the UK will meet long-term EU and global carbon reduction obligations which transcend small matters such as changes of governments and attitudes. Perhaps best to alight from the politics bus at this stop.

Progress with Round 3 received a setback when developers of two zones, Atlantic Array and Celtic Array in the Bristol Channel and Irish Sea respectively pulled out. For Atlantic Array, RWE Innogy cited technical challenges including substantially deeper waters and adverse seabed conditions, concluding the cost of overcoming the technical challenges as being prohibitive in the prevailing market conditions. The Crown Estate agreed to terminate the agreement for the zone removing RWE Innogy’s seabed rights.

Similarly at Celtic Array/Rhiannon, developers Centrica and Dong Energy considered the project economically unviable, referring to “challenging ground conditions”. The Crown Estate commented at the time that a target of between 8GW and 16GW of offshore wind capacity installed by 2020 appeared to sum up the then current government thinking: while less than the potential 33GW at the beginning of Round 3, 16GW would see a tripling of offshore wind’s contribution to UK energy.

OTHERS PUSH AHEAD
Despite these setbacks, the remaining Round 3 zones are making steady progress and at the same time providing a reminder of the vast amount of work that has to be completed before anything of material significance starts sprouting from the seabed.

Let’s begin at the furthest north of the zones, Moray Firth. Moray Offshore Renewables Ltd (MORL) is a JV between EDP Renewables UK and Repsol Nuevas Energias with their site around 22km from the Caithness coast, bordering Scottish Territorial Waters limits.

It is worth remembering here that the size of each zone is somewhat formidable when viewed on a map (and perhaps why some sources have extrapolated eye-watering potential turbine numbers and total capacities). In reality of course, the larger zones particularly have been divided into development areas, some containing a number of windfarms with phased development and progress being dictated by different individual factors.

The zone covers 520km2 in water depths from 37m to 57m and just as with odd units of popular measurements – so many London buses high for example, windfarm potential is often measured in the number of households it will supply energy for. MORL states the electricity needs of between 700,000 and one million households (1.5GW) could be supplied, a significant figure given that in 2010 there were 2.36 million homes in Scotland.

Two development areas were identified, Eastern and Western, the former being developed first due to near-term spatial constraints in the Western area. The Eastern area has been divided into three separate sites: Telford Offshore Windfarm Ltd, Stevenson Offshore Windfarm Ltd and MacColl Offshore Windfarm Ltd.

Application for consent to develop the three sites was submitted in 2012 and in March 2014 the welcome news was received that the Scottish Government had granted consent. The development involves a total installed capacity of 1,116MW from up to 62 turbines of 6MW to 8MW capacity at each site. It is interesting reflecting on the difference larger turbines makes when noting that the application suggested a far greater number of 3MW to 4MW turbines. MORL indicates construction commencing in 2016 with final commissioning around 2020.

Heading south we come across zone 2 Firth of Forth, 25km east of Fife and covering an area of 2,825km2. Seagreen Wind Energy is a JV between SSE Renewables and Fluor who are developing the zone in three phases, Phase 1 in the north and Phases 2 and 3 in the central and southern parts of the zone. Phase 1 will see the first development, comprising two windfarms, Projects Alpha and Bravo.

Progress here is similar to the neighbours in Moray Firth. The application to the Scottish Government for consent to build and operate two Phase 1 projects was made in 2012 with the application granted in October 2014. Total potential capacity is stated as 1,050MW from up to 150 turbines on the two projects.

INTO ENGLISH WATERS
The largest Round 3 zone is Dogger Bank covering an area of 8,660km2 between 125km and 290km from the Yorkshire coast, its outer limits aligned to the UK continental shelf limit. Despite the distance offshore it is one of the shallowest zones, water depths ranging from 18m to 63m. Dogger Bank is being developed by the Forewind consortium comprising: RWE Innogy UK, SSE Renewables, Statkraft and Statoil.

Zonal subdivision is particularly suitable for such a large area and Forewind hopes to achieve development consent for a target capacity of 7.2GW. Three tranches: A, B and C containing six project sites have been identified, each with a capacity of 1.2GW and known as: Creyke Beck A and B and Teesside A, B, C and D.

Forewind states the windfarms will “individually comprise some hundreds of turbines (depending on the size of turbine selected)” with the development consent process now under way. In February 2015 consent was granted for Creyke Beck (2.4GW from up to 400 turbines). The second stage, Teesside comprises two applications, A & B and C & D, the six-month examination of the development consent order application for the former concluded in February. Application for stages C and D is scheduled for early 2016.

To the south, SMart Wind Ltd, a JV between Mainstream Renewable Power and Siemens Project Ventures GmbH is developing the 4GW Hornsea offshore windfarm in 30m to 40m water depths and between 31km and 190km offshore. A two stage phased approach, Project One and Project Two proposes 1.2GW and 1.8GW capacities respectively. In 2011 Dong Energy acquired a stake in Project One before taking over full ownership in February 2015. Two windfarms within Project One, Heron Wind Ltd and Njord Ltd have a potential capacity up to 1.2GW with Dong previously being awarded Final Investment Decision Enabling contracts (Contract for Difference) in April 2014. The two windfarms propose up to 240 turbines (5MW to 8MW) with up to 360 turbines suggested for the two sites at Project Two; Breesea Ltd and Optimus Wind Ltd. Consent application was submitted to the Planning Inspectorate in January 2015.

The final North Sea zone is East Anglia off the Norfolk and Suffolk coast, being developed by ScottishPower Renewables and Vattenfall. Three projects, East Anglia ONE, THREE and FOUR are being developed. ScottishPower Renewables are solely leading East Anglia ONE now, the application for consent being submitted in November 2012 and the application being accepted in June 2014. In February this year ‘ONE’ became the largest energy project in England and Wales to be awarded a Contract for Difference and at the same time ScottishPower Renewables announced its role in leading the project. East Anglia ONE involves initially up to 100 turbines with an installed capacity of 714MW.

East Anglia THREE and FOUR are in the northern half of the zone and at different and earlier stages of development. A Preliminary Environmental Information Report has been published for the former which suggests up to 172 turbines producing 1.2GW. A similar installed capacity is expected from East Anglia FOUR with the scoping reports now published. Following public consultation days, a Statement of Community Consultation (part of the planning requirement) has also been published.

DOWN SOUTH
The two zones closest to the UK shoreline are zones six and seven off the Sussex and Hampshire/Dorset coast respectively. South of Hastings, zone six is being developed by E.ON Climate & Renewables UK under name Rampion Offshore Windfarm. The closest turbines inshore will be just 13km off the coast with 116 turbines, each producing 3.45MW and a total generating capacity of 400MW, Rampion is not only the smallest Round 3 Zone but will have a total capacity less than some Round 2 windfarms.

This has resulted in rapid and steady progress with development which included reducing the size of the site by 25% to lessen the visual impact. Consent was granted by the Secretary of State in July 2014 and with the Port of Newhaven chosen as the O&M base, offshore construction is expected to commence early 2016 with turbines generating electricity early the following year and commissioning and full operation expected in 2018.

A short distance along the coast we make our final visit of this tour of Round 3 to Navitus Bay Wind Park off the Hampshire/Dorset coast. Perhaps due to the sites proximity to land with a large local and tourist population nearby and in the middle of the UK’s major leisure boating and sailing area, developers have encountered opposition locally. Boundary changes in December 2012 and February 2014 resultant from local feedback led to a revised area smaller than originally planned. It is worth noting that with the passage of time, larger turbine developments result in potentially, the same generating capacity from fewer turbines.

Navitus Bay is a JV between Eneco Wind UK Ltd and EDF Energy Renewables who propose a 630MW project but with the original 970MW plan also included in the approval process. The Development Consent Application includes what is known as the ‘Rochdale Envelope’ a well-established approach involving a range of turbine sizes and quantities allowing flexibility in the final configuration.

The number of turbines is put at between 121 and 194, the decision on the Development Consent Order expected in Q2 2015 with (assuming consent) construction commencing in Q2 2017.

As this edition went to press MHI Vestas announced they had won an order to supply to 116, V112-3.45 MW turbines for E.ON’s Round 3 Rampion Offshore Windfarm off the UK south coast. Delivery of the turbines is expected to start in Q1 2017

By Peter Barker