Shipping Forecast more trustworthy over time
The Met Office has significantly improved the accuracy of its maritime weather forecasts over the past 10 years, contributing to safer and more efficient operations across the UK’s maritime sectors.
New analysis reveals a steady upward trend in the precision of the iconic Shipping Forecast, with wind speed accuracy rising from 72% to 82%, wind direction from 82% to 88%, and sea state from 64% to 75%.
“The Shipping Forecast is very much a traditional style forecast, but I have to say it’s one that we still very much use. Every morning I review the latest forecast,” said Captain Lewis MacKenzie, Master of the MV Isle of Lewis.
From offshore wind farms to fishing vessels and cargo ships, accurate forecasts are critical. Research by Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences found that 30% of marine accidents are linked to poor weather conditions, underscoring the value of reliable forecasts.
The Met Office has developed a near real-time verification system to monitor forecast accuracy, enabling continuous refinement. Forecast performance varies by region, with recent data showing wind speed accuracy ranging from 71% in the Irish Sea to 89% in Sole.
The improvements stem from a combination of advanced modelling, rigorous verification, and the introduction of automated forecasting tools that support but do not replace human expertise.
“As a fisherman, we have serious respect for the power of the sea. The quality of service strives to be better, it gives every maritime sector the confidence to make better, safer, well-informed decisions,” said Derek Cardno of the Scottish Fishermen’s Federation.
