WindEurope slashes offshore wind target for 2030

WindEurope has halved a 2030 target of almost 160GW of installed capacity to 80GW in its Latest Wind Energy Data for Europe: Autumn 2025 report.

Just three projects were connected to grids in the first half of 2025, in just two countries – the UK and France, and just one project was awarded in Europe.

Total connection capacity, 741MW, was 30% less than in the same H1 2025, when 1.1GW was connected, WindEurope says.

“The UK connected the most offshore wind capacity in H1 2025 – 645MW in total,” it says. “This shows that 36% of the total expected capacity in 2025 was connected in the first half of the year. The remaining added capacity should come from Dogger Bank Phase A, East Anglia Hub Three (1.4GW), and Sofia (1.4GW).”

France connected 96MW of offshore wind capacity in H1 2025, all from the Îles d’Yeu and Noirmoutier wind farm (488MW). The 12 connected turbines are rated 8MW. The outlook for France is for 520MW of new offshore wind capacity to be connected to the grid in 2025. This means that during H1 2025, France connected just 18% of the forecast new offshore capacity.

However, despite only 741MW being connected to the grid in the first half of 2025 at three wind farms, eight other wind farms also saw some construction activity. In total, 171 foundations and 84 turbines were installed, but not all were connected by 30 June.

Awards and FIDs

Just one European offshore wind project was awarded in one country in the first half of 2025 – a fixed-bottom project in Germany that will cost the winning developer €180 million just for the rights. In both on and offshore wind, the total award was 11.7GW, almost half as much as in 2024, when 20.1GW was awarded.

“France planned to award two sites – AO7 and AO8 – with a combined capacity of 2.8GW in 2025,” the report says. “However, the results were postponed to H2 2025.”

Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) were reached on six offshore wind farms with a combined capacity of 5.6GW, raising about €22.1 billion in capital, the report says, including Poland’s first three sites – Baltica 2, Baltyk II and Baltyk III – Inch Cape in the UK and Nordlicht I and II in Germany. All six farms are due to be commissioned by the end of 2028.

Outlook to 2030

Projects are less optimistic for wind champions, and with considerations of political and economic uncertainties, permitting delays and grid bottlenecks, WindEurope estimates that total installed offshore wind capacity will reach 80GW by 2030.

“The slower-than-expected rate of electrification across Europe is also weakening the business case for wind. This has led to a downward revision in the onshore and offshore wind outlook to 2030,” it says.

“Europe has bold ambitions for offshore wind. In many ways, it is ideally suited – there is an abundance of shallow sea available with very good wind resource, particularly in the North and Baltic Seas. And Europe has long been the global leader in offshore wind development with a strong supply chain and track record. Governments across Europe have recognised the benefits of offshore wind.”

However targets have been revised down after an initial surge in 2022, when a 2021 target of 114GW was raised to 158GW.

That was the peak, and since then national governments have scaled back ‘as they realise that the time needed to establish a political framework for offshore wind, upgrade electricity grids to connect projects, and develop local supply chains makes delivering on these targets a significant challenge’.

“In the UK rising costs, supply chain challenges and difficult financing conditions were the reasons given for the cancellation of Hornsea 4 – a 2.4GW project.

“But despite the fact that we are unlikely to develop offshore wind as quickly as hoped, markets are still developing nonetheless. Many will see new projects entering the electricity system shortly after the turn of the decade.”

WindEurope’s full report can be downloaded here.